New Jersey is experiencing a large outflow of high earners.  The State tries to paint a rosy picture of new taxes but they still found in a Princeton University study funded by the NJ Department of Economic Growth:

… among those with very high non-labor earnings (such as capital gains or interest income), there is a large net out‐migration: for every 100 who leave, only about 45 move into the state.

The study goes to claim that the impact is minimal because many high earners who are working here cannot leave and must pay the new taxes.  However, the study fails to take into account the loss to overall economy when high earners leave, not just the differences in the income tax revenue.  There is also no way to determine how many high earners decided not to move here because the tax climate. 

The study also focused on those making $500,000 per year or more which is a very small segment of the population.  The 5.525% and 6.37% brackets cover those singles and couples making more than about $75,000.  The report shows those age 45+ are leaving in high percentages.  For every 100 that move out only about 70 move in.  For those with non-labor incomes above $50,000 only 50 move in for every 100 that move out. 

The report also says that documented low earners are moving out of the State from such effects as unemployment.  The report fails to mention the correlation between older, more experienced, high earners moving out and the lack of low-end jobs causing younger, less experienced workers to leave before they can establish themselves.  Since someone is doing the work on the lower pay scale, the work often goes to undocumented workers whose data is not contained in the report since tax return data was used.  The report also describes the “cost of living” as a factor in low earners leaving.  However, no analysis was of the overall tax burden from things like sales tax, gasonline tax, junk fees, etc. was considered, only income tax.